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Scenario Cards -- Decision Literacy

Use these scenarios to start a discussion, illustrate a concept, or give students practice applying decision-making tools. All scenarios use fictional characters.

The Lucky Win​

Scenario: Jordan studied very little for a test, guessed on most answers, and got a B+. Jordan is thrilled and decides to study even less next time.

Discussion:

  • Was Jordan's decision to study less a good one?
  • What is the difference between the quality of Jordan's process and the quality of the result?
  • What might happen over the next three tests if Jordan keeps this up?

Extension: Find a real example of someone who got a good result from a poor process.

The Broken Umbrella​

Scenario: Alex remembers one time leaving home without an umbrella and getting soaked. Now Alex always carries an umbrella, even on sunny days.

Discussion:

  • Which cognitive bias might be affecting Alex's thinking?
  • What would a probabilistic thinker do instead?
  • Is carrying an umbrella every day irrational, or just inefficient?

Extension: What other everyday habits come from one memorable bad experience?

The Unfinished Game​

Scenario: Riley has spent three weekends building an elaborate card game from scratch. It turns out it is not very fun. But Riley keeps working on it because of all the time already invested.

Discussion:

  • What is the sunk cost in this situation?
  • What should Riley consider instead?
  • When is it worth finishing something you started? When is it not?

Extension: Find a real example of a company that continued a failing project because of sunk costs.

The Shared Snack​

Scenario: Five friends share a bag of chips. Each friend thinks "I will just have a few more -- the others have plenty." By the end, the bag is empty and everyone is a little annoyed.

Discussion:

  • What is happening here from a commons perspective?
  • If the group had agreed on a rule beforehand, what would it have been?
  • What is the tragedy of the commons and how does it apply?

Extension: Find a real shared resource that ran out because of this pattern.

The Coin Flip Decision​

Scenario: Sam and Jamie are trying to decide which movie to watch. They cannot agree. Sam suggests flipping a coin. Jamie says "But what if the coin flip chooses the wrong movie?"

Discussion:

  • What does Jamie's comment reveal about how they understand the coin flip?
  • What is the coin flip actually deciding?
  • When is a random method a good way to make a decision?

Extension: What kinds of decisions should NOT be made by coin flip?

The Free Upgrade​

Scenario: Mo is buying a bike. The salesperson says "For only ten dollars more, you can upgrade to the pro model with twelve extra gears." Mo is already over budget but says "Well, ten dollars is not that much..."

Discussion:

  • What cognitive shortcuts might be at work here?
  • What is the actual question Mo should be asking?
  • How could Mo reframe the decision?

Extension: Research the "foot in the door" technique in sales.