Probabilistic Outcomes
Many outcomes are shaped by likelihoods rather than guarantees. Learners practice using probability language instead of treating every choice as certain or impossible.
Introduction
Decision Literacy for Kids helps educators and families teach learners how to think through choices, weigh evidence, notice trade-offs, and reflect on outcomes. The strongest fit is ages 10–12, with simpler supports for ages 8–9 and extension prompts for ages 12–15.
Plain-language summary: learners practice noticing choices, making predictions, checking what evidence they used, and reflecting on what happened.
Source note for facilitators: the curriculum uses widely taught ideas from probability, heuristics, metacognition, and reflective practice. These are presented as common patterns that often show up in real decisions.
Part of the Literacy for Kids Ecosystem
Open-source curricula for children ages 8–12, designed to help kids understand the systems that shape modern life.
Literacy for KidsProject HubDecision LiteracyReasoning and choicesComputer LiteracyUnderstanding technologyMedia LiteracyUnderstanding informationFinancial LiteracyUnderstanding moneyCivic LiteracyUnderstanding governanceEmotional & Social LiteracyUnderstanding self and othersLegal LiteracyUnderstanding rules and agreementsEnvironmental Systems LiteracyUnderstanding Earth systemsHealth Systems LiteracyUnderstanding the body
Core Concepts
The curriculum is organized around a set of mental models that help students understand decision-making in practical, durable ways.
Brain Shortcuts (Heuristics)
Our brains use mental shortcuts that often help but can mislead in some situations. Noticing those default patterns is the first step toward checking them.
Opportunity Cost
Every choice carries a hidden price tag: the next-best option you did not pick. Learners make those invisible trade-offs easier to discuss.
Diminishing Returns
More is not always better. Students learn that extra effort or extra research can help at first, then help less, and sometimes delay action without adding much value.
Iterative Decisions
Many choices can be tested, measured, and improved. The course ends by helping learners design a protocol, try it, gather data, and revise it.
Curriculum Roadmap
The learning progression moves from foundational ideas about luck and process into increasingly complex applications involving evidence, systems, and self-designed protocols.
This roadmap is presented as text so the full sequence stays readable with a screen reader or without relying on image text.
Weeks 1–4
Probability & The Physics of Choice
Randomness, probability, process vs. outcome thinking, and the Decision Journal — building the foundation for everything that follows.
Weeks 5–8
Debugging the Hardware
Heuristics, loss aversion, sunk costs, and the framing effect — turning the lens inward to study the brain's default settings.
Weeks 9–11
Data & Signal Processing
Expected value, signal vs. noise, and the reversible/irreversible framework — quantitative tools for cutting through uncertainty.
Weeks 12–14
Game Theory & Social Systems
Ripple effects, the Prisoner's Dilemma, and the Tragedy of the Commons — expanding from "me" decisions to "us" decisions.
Weeks 15–18
The Optimization Project
Identify a real friction point, design a protocol, test it with data, and iterate — applying every tool to a genuine personal challenge.
Start Teaching Decision Literacy
Begin with Week 1 and help learners build a repeatable process for making, discussing, and revising decisions thoughtfully.
Found a mistake or have a suggestion? Open an issue on GitHub.
Version 1.0
This curriculum is an open project and will continue to improve as teachers and families use it.